July 26, 2021

According to the farmer’s rule, this is the weather for the next few weeks

“The weather on Dormouse Day may stay seven more weeks” – at least that is a farmer’s rule for June 27th. Accordingly, the weather could become inconsistent, because the German Weather Service (DWD) expects temperatures of up to 30 degrees for this day, but also showers and occasional strong thunderstorms.

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Sunscreen and fans will continue to be needed in large parts of Germany over the next few weeks. Meteorologists still expect local showers and thunderstorms, but these will only last for a short time. In the other parts, and after the storms, it will continue to be summery with temperatures of up to 27 degrees. Especially on dormouse day, June 27th, it should get really hot again.

Outlook for the next few days

According to meteorologists, temperatures will rise in northern Germany. Up to 30 degrees and some cumulus clouds are expected for Sunday. A cooling off is also not in sight for the next few days. Thunderstorms and showers are supposed to move over the south and west and partly also the middle on Tuesday night, but until then the temperatures will remain hot in summer at up to 33 degrees. Storms are still to be expected. In the north and northeast, however, it should remain mostly dry. Overall, it remains humid and thunderstorm, according to the DWD. Except in the north and northeast. It should stay mostly dry here.

After the thunderstorms and showers in the night from Monday to Tuesday, the heat wave can partially level off. In the next days or weeks, however, the temperatures should rise again to up to 30 degrees. Thunderstorms are still to be expected in the coming days and weeks. According to the DWD, we could face a “rocking summer” in which there could be frequent changes between heat waves and thunderstorms and showers.

Is it now seven weeks of sunshine?

One of the old weather wisdoms is: “When the sun shines on the dormouse, there are seven weeks of bliss.” But this statement should be treated with caution. Reliable statements about the development of the weather can only be made for the next three days, explains a DWD spokesman when asked by t-online. In addition, the chance that the weather on June 27 will persist for the next seven weeks is between 55 and 70 percent. “You can also toss a coin,” said the DWD.

For meteorologists, a period of several days between the end of June and the beginning of July is more relevant, when there is a 60 to 70 percent probability that a flow situation in the atmosphere can solidify, which then shapes the further course of the summer, explains the spokesman. Since the peasant rule was created before the Gregorian calendar reform in 1582, today’s dormouse day no longer corresponds to the original day. Due to the shift by about ten days, the “correct” dormouse day would not be until July 7th.

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Different interpretations

The pawn rule comes in different formulations, here are a few examples:

  • “How the weather behaves on the dormouse is ordered for seven weeks.”
  • “The weather on Dormouse Day may remain for another seven weeks.”
  • “If the dormouse is wet, it rains incessantly.”
  • “When the sun shines on the dormouse, there are seven weeks of bliss.”
  • “When the dormice boil rain, it rains for a whole seven weeks.”

What is it about Dormouse Day?

Superstition or not: meteorologists actually see a stabilization of the general weather situation at this time, which usually lasts over a longer period of time. The reason for this is the peculiarity of the earth’s atmosphere: at a height of about ten kilometers, so-called jet streams blow in a zigzag around the earth. They influence the trajectories of high and low pressure areas and are therefore essentially responsible for the development of the weather.

In the period from the end of June to the beginning of July, the course of the jet stream remains relatively constant, and the weather situation is correspondingly stable. Whether it will be sunny or rainy ultimately depends on whether the wind blows across Europe in a south or north curve. If the jet stream runs south, there is more of a low pressure influence and more unstable weather, while a northerly route means high pressure and sunshine.

Possibly animal: where did the dormouse get its name from?

In southern Germany you can rely on the dormouse more

Especially in southern Germany, the farmer’s rule often applies: According to the Institute for Weather and Climate Communication, weather conditions that occur in southern Germany at the beginning of July will remain stable with a probability of 70 percent. However, further north the weather becomes increasingly unstable – in Hamburg the probability is only 50 to 60 percent.

To predict the summer weather, however, it is better to use a slightly larger period of one to two weeks as a basis, rather than relying on dormouse day alone. Other comparable weather phenomena are the Ice Saints from May 11th to 15th or the so-called sheep cold on June 11th.

Origin: The Legend of the Seven Sleepers of Ephesus

The peasant rule owes its name to an old legend and not to that homonymous rodent. Seven young Christians, the Sleepers of Ephesus, were walled up alive in a mountain cave near Ephesus during the persecution of Christians during the reign of Emperor Decius (249-251). Instead of dying, according to legend, the men slept for 195 years, awoke on June 27, 446 and witnessed their belief in the resurrection of the dead. The Seven Sleepers Day is also a day of remembrance for the Seven Sleepers of Ephesus.

The first evidence of the legend comes from the fifth century. There are several variants, including in Islam (Koran, Sura 18, “The Cave”).

And what do the rodents do?

Rodent: A dormouse nibbles on a piece of apple in the Bilche wildlife station in Wiesbaden. (Source: Alexander Heinl / dpa)

The dormice are now looking for a suitable place for the offspring and are therefore particularly active. The Naturschutzbund (Nabu) asks to help the small mammals and to give them some space in the attic or to hang a dormouse box in the garden.

Garden rules: What are the ice saints? When do they come and what do they mean? Everything you need to know about the weather phenomenon in May.

“Because natural hiding places are becoming increasingly rare, dormice are also looking for accommodation in settlements,” explains the Rhineland-Palatinate Nabu. “You have no choice but to evade.”