July 28, 2021

ARD Germany Trend: Worry about a Corona autumn

Status: 07/01/2021 6:00 p.m.

The corona pandemic does not let go of people: the majority of those surveyed feared loudly ARD Germany trend increasing numbers of infections in autumn. This goes hand in hand with concern for the development of children.

The low incidence figures and warmer temperatures provide relief for us: Currently, only around a quarter (27 percent) of citizens are worried about infecting themselves or members of their family with Corona. That is roughly the same as last summer: last August it was 28 percent.

Germans are far more worried about a new wave of infections: 62 percent said this week that they were very worried or very worried that the infections could rise again in the coming weeks. That is 12 points more than in July 2020. Almost two thirds (64 percent) are concerned about new variants of the corona virus such as the so-called delta mutation.

Great concern for children’s development

However, the situation of children is by far the most worrisome at the moment: 79 percent of those questioned fear that children will be impaired in their development due to limited childcare and schooling. Of the parents with school-age children in the household, the figure is as high as 89 percent. That is why eight out of ten Germans are in favor of installing air filter systems in the classrooms after the summer holidays.

71 percent of parents are in favor of maintaining regular corona tests in schools. And 56 percent of parents are in favor of switching lessons to be offered again if the number of infections is high. The only measure that receives little support: the mask requirement in class. Only 27 percent of parents or 37 percent of the general population are in favor.

46 percent of citizens are currently very worried or very worried about the fact that the corona pandemic could restrict their rights of freedom in the long term. That is nine points more than in December 2020. 52 percent say that they are currently less worried, big or small, in this context.

Ellen Ehni on the German trend

tagesschau24 6:00 p.m., July 1, 2021

Unclear picture in the direct election question

It is a special federal election in just under three months, because the incumbent is no longer running. That is a novelty in the history of the Federal Republic. And Angela Merkel is once again increasing in popularity at the end of her chancellorship: 69 percent are currently very satisfied or satisfied with the work of the Chancellor – six points more than in the previous month.

In comparison, none of the three people who want to inherit Angela Merkel in office currently stand out. If you could directly elect the Chancellor in Germany, then Armin Laschet for the Union and Olaf Scholz for the SPD would be almost on par: 28 percent would vote for the incumbent Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, one point less in comparison to the previous month. 29 percent would choose Vice Chancellor Olaf Scholz, three points more than in the previous month. 18 percent would vote for Annalena Baerbock from the Greens, plus two points. A quarter of those eligible to vote do not provide any information or do not know who they would vote for.

Direct election of the Federal Chancellor

No fundamental change desired

The desire for fundamental changes is limited among those entitled to vote. The openness to more in-depth changes has almost doubled compared to 2017. However, only a third of those eligible to vote currently support a fundamental change in the country (34 percent; +15). 57 percent are in favor of some course corrections – that is 11 points less than in 2017. 7 percent of those surveyed want everything to stay as it is.

Above all, an above-average number of supporters of the FDP are in favor of a rather moderate change (“some course corrections”): 75 percent. Moderate changes are also favored among supporters of the Union (70 percent) and those of the SPD (70 percent). The picture is divided among supporters of the Greens: a good half (51 percent) would like some course corrections – 46 percent would like a fundamental change in the meantime. The desire for a fundamental change is even more pronounced among supporters of the Left (53 percent) and the AfD (58 percent).

Willingness to reform in Germany

This majority desire for continuity is not the exception, but rather the rule. In July 1998 this question was asked for the first time in the DeutschlandTrend. Since then, a majority has spoken out in favor of fundamental change only once – in September 2005; previously, the governing coalition of the SPD and the Greens had launched a comprehensive social policy reform package called “Agenda 2010”.

Relative majority for Union-led federal government

If the general election were on Sunday, the Union would currently have 28 percent – no change compared to the previous month. The SPD improves by one point and comes to 15 percent. AfD and FDP each deteriorate by one point and are equal at 11 percent. Left and Greens are stable at seven and 20 percent, respectively.

When asked which party should lead the next federal government, 39 percent of those surveyed said they would prefer a Union-led federal government – no change compared to ARD Germany trend in the morning magazine of June 25th. 20 percent (+4) want a cabinet led by the Social Democrats; 19 percent (+3) would currently favor the first green government. However, a good one in five (22 percent, -7) currently does not provide any information or does not know who will lead the next federal government.

Investigation facility

Population: Eligible voters in Germany
Survey method: Random-based telephone * and online survey
* of which 60 percent landline, 40 percent mobile
Survey period: June 28-30, 2021
Number of cases: 1317 respondents (861 telephone interviews and 456 online interviews)

Weighting: according to socio-demographic characteristics and
Reminder about voting behavior / Sunday question with separate weighting
Fluctuation range: 2 * to 3 ** percentage points
* with a share value of 10 percent ** with a share value of 50 percent

Implementing institute: infratest dimap

The results are rounded to whole percentages in order to avoid false expectations of precision. This is because fluctuation ranges must be taken into account for all representative surveys. In the case of a survey with 1000 respondents, these amount to around three percentage points for large parties and around one point for smaller parties. In addition, the rounding error is significant for small parties. For these reasons, no party is shown under three percent in the Sunday question.