The effect of a party of Giuseppe Conte? A blow for Beppe Grillo and the 5 Star Movement, but bad news for too Matteo Salvini. The traditional Swg survey Monday evening for Enrico Mentana al TgLa7 reserve more than one surprise.
It starts with the “naked and raw” data of the parties. There League, after weeks of slow erosion, it returns to gain on Brothers of Italy: Salvini’s party is the first party, al 20,6% after earning 0.3 points in one week. Reverse path for Giorgia Meloni: FdI, undoubtedly the political case of this 2021 due to its unbridled escalation, drops by 0.2 and moves back to 20,5%, just a tenth of a point below the center-right “ally” with whom a battle is underway for the leadership of the coalition. Behind, both the Pd (-0.1, now al 18,7%) and the 5 Stars torn apart by the internal feud with the former premier. The grillini slide to the 14,6%, -0.2, waiting to know what will happen to them. Stable instead Come on Italy, al 7%, while the growth of Action al 4% (+0.1) and above all by Italy Viva (al 2,5%, well +0.4), but at the bottom they are bushes that change little both in the center-left and in the global political plan.
Instead, the break between Conte and Grillo would change the balance. The impact of the splitting of the 5 Star Movement, explains Mentana numbers in hand, would leave the data of the Brothers of Italy substantially unchanged (al 20,4%), but it would affect not a little both on the League (which would drop to 20,2%, surprisingly enough) both on the Pd (16%). The Conte’s party is evaluated at 12,7%, therefore able to draw directly not only from the Democratic Party, but also from Forza Italia (al 6,3%). Literally crumbled, however, the Movement, with the father-master Grillo who would find himself in hand as soon as the 7.1 percent.